UAB’s Path to the AAC Title
UAB Must Win Out
Five AAC teams can still make a run at the top seed. The current standings are as follows:
The Blazers have six games left; winning out would give UAB a final record of 15-3, rivaling USF and Charlotte. It's theoretically possible for UAB to lose a game and still grab the one seed, but that would involve an overwhelming amount of tiebreaker luck and would rely on teams like UTSA and Tulsa repeatedly upsetting the conference's elite. It's not worth talking about.
This is the condition with the least wiggle room. If the Blazers don't finish the year 6-0, they're all but eliminated from regular season title contention.
Is this realistic?
KenPom says not particularly.
UAB's first obstacle: the Blazers have six games remaining, while every other contender has five. This will be corrected on Wednesday when Rice comes to Bartow, but it's an extra opportunity for UAB to lose.
Even if the Blazers take care of the Owls, plenty of potholes still riddle the road ahead. The Blazers have never beaten Wichita State and have to play a weekday road game in Philadelphia, and those are the easiest games on the schedule. A daunting trip to New Orleans is followed by a Sunday matinee in FedExForum, where UAB sports an all-time record of 1-23. The cherry on top of this gauntlet? KenPom #39 SMU.
Pomeroy's algorithm predicts the Blazers will finish 12-6 in AAC play, giving UAB a 2% chance to win out.
There are reasons for optimism, of course. Per Haslametrics, the Blazers have more momentum than almost any team in the country. The Green and Gold have handily beaten Tulane and Memphis, were up ten on the road at SMU, and profile extremely well against Wichita State, Rice, and Temple. And let's be honest: no remaining opponent (save SMU) has inspired fear with their recent play.
UAB still controls much of its destiny. If they manage to pull these next six out, the Blazers are guaranteed a top-three seed, if not the conference title. However, they'll need a little help.
USF and Charlotte Must Lose 2+ Games Each
Let's go back to those standings.
Four teams stand in UAB's way. We can discard SMU. If the Blazers win out, as this hypothetical assumes they will, UAB will defeat the Mustangs head-to-head and boast a 15-3 record that SMU could not match.
FAU is similarly not a threat. If the Owls win out, they'll have the same 15-3 record as UAB. One of the AAC's tiebreakers is the "round-robin" - a team's combined record against teams tied with them. For example, if UAB, USF, and FAU all finished the season 15-3, the standings would read:
UAB (2-1 overall record against FAU and USF)
USF (1-1 overall record against FAU and UAB)
FAU (1-2 overall record against USF and UAB)
This scenario has a few different iterations, but know that the Blazers come out on top in all of them. There is no situation in which FAU could beat UAB in this tiebreaker.
South Florida and Charlotte, on the other hand, are more complex puzzles to solve. UAB plays neither team again, so the Blazers will have to rely on fate and a little bit of good luck to surpass them.
USF owns an impressive 12-1 conference record, which puts them 2.5 games ahead of the Blazers. However, their one loss was to UAB. If the Bulls and the Blazers finish with the same record, UAB has the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, meaning we need USF to lose at least twice in the season's dying weeks.
Next week will be absolutely critical for the Blazers' title hopes. South Florida faces two brutal tests: a home game against SMU and a road game at Charlotte.
Unfortunately, a Charlotte win over USF would serve as a double-edged sword. The 49ers are just one game above UAB in the standings but holds the head-to-head advantage - there is no way for the Blazers to win a tiebreaker against the Niners. Charlotte must finish with a 14-4 record or worse for UAB to have a shot at the title.
Along with USF, UAB needs the 49ers to lose two or more games.
If Charlotte were to beat USF, we'd have to rely on two of Memphis, Tulsa, Rice, and ECU to beat Charlotte. Not inspiring.
However, if USF were to beat Charlotte, we'd have to rely on two of UTSA, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane to beat USF. Similarly underwhelming options.
Either way, UAB is banking on two upsets from bottom-tier teams. For my money, the most probable path to victory is as follows:
SMU beats USF
USF beats Charlotte
At which point the Niners and the Bulls will each have one loss. From there:
UTSA, Tulane, or Tulsa has to beat USF
AND
Memphis, Tulsa, Rice, or ECU has to beat Charlotte
It's not likely, but there's a shot.
Most important games:
February 21st - Charlotte at Memphis
February 25th - SMU at South Florida
March 2nd - South Florida at Charlotte
The probabilities of each scenario, per BartTorvik:
3.4% is... greater than 0!
I used this website to run simulations.