Ranking The AAC’s Home Court Advantages
Plenty of American teams have been excellent at home this season. South Florida, Charlotte, and SMU all boast flawless league records in their respective arenas. UAB hadn't lost an AAC game in Bartow until that nightmare against Rice.
But which squads truly have the largest advantages at home? USF has won all of their conference games played at Yuengling. However, is there any evidence to suggest that the Bulls actually play better in Tampa than they do on the road? Sure, they've been great at home, but they've also been great everywhere. How much do they actually gain from playing in Yuengling?
Today, we'll answer that question for UAB, South Florida, and every other American team. First things first, let's lay out the ways home court advantage, which I'll refer to as HCA, can be quantified. HCA isn't completely intangible, an invisible force that magically makes a team play better. Its effect can be seen in box score stats, particularly subjective ones that depend on referees' judgment.
Per Ken Pomeroy's research, foul bias is a real thing. Home teams typically get more favorable whistles - officials are human, after all. Who among us wouldn't be swayed by thousands of people calling for our heads?
To rank the home courts in the American, we're going to take each team's average foul differential at home and subtract it from their average foul differential on the road. This will create a rough estimate of the extra favorable whistles they get per home game.
We'll do the same with average block differential and, of course, average point differential. If you're wondering why block differential matters, a good HCA will allow teams to play more physically around the rim and get called for fewer shooting fouls. An example: North Texas records 4.17 extra net blocks per game at home, the best mark in the league by far. The referees in the Pit let UNT implement their mean, aggressive, and physical style.
We'll also use a composite stat I'll call home court index (HCI), an average of the three differentials. To create a closed system, we're only going to consider 2024 conference games.
This method is admittedly not that statistically rigorous. The sample size is tiny: there are around 14 total data points for every team, meaning the output can significantly change after just one game.
The data is also extremely noisy. The number one team on this list is eighteen points better at home than on the road, despite ranking in the AAC's bottom third in attendance. Obviously, they have a strong home court, but much of that massive differential can be chalked up to strength of schedule, shooting luck, poor road performance, and other factors.
Don't extrapolate many long-term conclusions from this list. HCA is unstable year-over-year: these rankings will look significantly different in February of 2025. This is more a reflection of teams' home court advantage this year, not a prediction of their future HCA.
All this to say: these just interesting trends that probably don't mean that much. All in good fun!
Worst - Tudor Fieldhouse, Rice
Tudor Fieldhouse, the American's second-oldest arena, consistently bears witness to crowds of fewer than 2000. It's a common refrain among AAC fans that Rice has the conference's worst home court advantage, and our numbers strongly agree.
In fact, the Owls have been worse at home in league play. They're the only AAC team for which that's the case. Rice's home point differential of -7.43 is last in the American by an incredible 11 points.
The less-than-rowdy Tudor crowd hardly influences the officials. The Owls get just 0.60 extra foul calls per game at home, a marginal amount, and they get 1.31 fewer blocks per game at home.
No other team in the AAC comes close to the Owls' HCI of -2.71. They've played like they're at a home court disadvantage.
A shocking stat: the distance between Rice's HCI and the 13th-place team's HCI is greater than the distance between the 13th-place team's HCI and the 1st-place team's HCI.
Tier 4 - Tulane, UTSA, USF
Yuengling Center
Is there any evidence to suggest that the Bulls actually play better in Tampa than they do on the road? Sure, they've been great at home, but they've also been great everywhere. How much do they actually gain from playing in Yuengling?
Our question from the beginning of the article! The answer: very little suggests the Bulls are undefeated at home because of a particularly strong HCA. They're just good everywhere they play.
Convocation Center
This was one of the biggest surprises on the list to me. UTSA has scared plenty of teams on their home court (UAB, Charlotte, USF, FAU), and it feels like there are never any easy games in San Antonio.
However, it doesn't seem like much of that can be chalked up to the Convo. At home, the Roadrunners don't get many extra whistles, they get fewer blocks than they do on the road, and their HCI rivals USF's for second-worst in the conference. It seems the myth of the Convo is slightly overstated.
Devlin Fieldhouse
Point differential wise, Tulane has actually performed quite well at home. The Wave have been 11.76 PPG better in Devlin than they've been on the road. However, the Greenies have absolutely no semblance of a home whistle. They record -0.95 fewer foul calls per game at home and 2.84 fewer blocks per game at home, the lowest number in the AAC by a long shot.
Tier 3 - UAB, Memphis, Temple
Liacouras Center
I think Temple is an example of a team whose numbers are mostly derived from their terrible road track record. The Owls are by no means world-beaters at the Liacouras Center - they're 2-5 at home in league play - but they've been even worse in away games, sporting a conference record of 0-6.
That's something important to keep in mind throughout the rest of the list: a decent HCA does not necessarily equal team quality. Temple hasn't been good anywhere they've played, but their home performances, while bad, have been better than their road ones. This principle applies to both UTSA and Tulane as well.
FedExForum
Well, well, well. If you've ever interacted with a Memphis fan on Twitter, you've been made well aware that the Tigers share their arena with an NBA team, and they lead the conference in attendance, and playing in FedExForum is every team's Super Bowl, and --
It turns out their home court advantage hasn't been particularly special in 2024. The Forum ranks around the conference's median in all of our differentials. Memphis' Wednesday victory over Charlotte did a lot to save face - the Tigers were below Temple at the beginning of this week.
Bartow Arena
One of the best home whistles in the league. (Formerly) a home point differential around +7. UAB would be an entire tier higher if they simply didn't lose to Rice at home by 25.
It is worth noting that the Blazers' fouls HCA isn't particularly inflated by a single data point. Even if you remove the USF game, where UAB recorded just 18 fouls to the Bulls' 28, the Blazers would still rank fourth in the league in home court foul differential. Bartow makes a tangible impact on officials.
Tier 2 - SMU, Charlotte, ECU
Williams Arena
The Pirates have gotten nearly six extra home foul calls per game this year, .5 more than any other American team. ECU has hosted tough, physical teams like North Texas and SMU and finished with a positive foul differential in both matchups.
The Pirates are themselves a slow, defensive-oriented team that isn't afraid of contact, and Williams Arena referees have given them relative freedom to play defense around the rim.
Halton Arena
Charlotte is kind of the anti-ECU, as they are undefeated at home despite a lack of friendly whistles. "Halton Magic" doesn't extend to the officials - Tulane is the only other AAC team with an average foul differential lower on their home court than it is on the road.
Moody Coliseum
SMU, Charlotte, and South Florida are all undefeated at home, yet the latter sits seven spots below the Mustangs and the 49ers on this list.
Without making any judgments on the quality of the teams themselves, it seems as though SMU and Charlotte have a more tangible home court advantage than USF.
Here's a side-by-side comparison of the three:
Tier 1 - Wichita State, FAU, UNT
The Super Pit
You can tell exactly how UNT plays just by looking at these numbers. If you step into the Super Pit, you're coming out with bruises, and that's especially highlighted by the whopping 4.17 extra net blocks per game the Mean Green record at home.
That mark leads the American by a mile.
Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena
I will admit I mock FAU fans for continuously talking about how they sell out the smallest arena in the conference, but the Burrow has treated the Owls well this year.
I'm briefly going to break the confines of this season. KenPom's home court advantage metric, which I derived this system from, ranks HCA based on a school's last 120 conference games. Florida Atlantic has the second-worst home court advantage of any AAC team over the last six seasons.
However, Baldwin Arena has been one of the hardest places to play in the American in 2024. I tip my cap to FAU fans for making their HCA substantially better this year than ever before.
Charles Koch Arena
Charles Koch Arena is probably the American venue with the most pedigree in the way of HCA. ESPN has named it one of the most daunting places to play in the country; the Shockers boast an 82.7% win percentage in the building since 2010.
That tradition has continued into 2024. Although Wichita has suffered through one of their worst seasons since the turn of the millennium, officials give the Shockers more friendly whistles than any other team in the conference. Their home foul and block differentials both rank second in the league.
Wichita State has an extremely valid argument that their home court is the best in the AAC. However, our final team stands in their way...
Best - Reynolds Center, Tulsa
The biggest, baddest home court in all the land... Tulsa, Oklahoma?
Back to that KenPom home court advantage metric. The 21st-ranked team in the entire nation over the last six season? Tulsa. This isn't an anomalous finding! The Golden Hurricane have been one of the country's best-performing home teams for several years now.
Yet they're close to the bottom of the conference in two of the metrics I've harped on the entire article. The Reynolds Center doesn't gift Tulsa favorable whistles on either offense or defense. How is it possible that they've been eighteen average points better at home than on the road?
To tell you the truth, I'm not entirely sure. Like I said in the intro:
Obviously, they have a strong home court, but much of that massive differential can be chalked up to strength of schedule, shooting luck, poor road performance, and other factors.
The Golden Hurricane are a truly uninspiring road team, and have been for several years now. They've lost multiple away games by 30+ in the last month, as they did last February. Maybe the AAC schedule has consistently worked out in a way where the Golden Hurricane face their worst matchups on the road and have more manageable home schedules.
Still! This season alone, Tulsa:
beat Rice by 2 on the road, then beat them by 11 at home
beat Wichita State by 11 at home, then lost to them by 16 on the road
I can't explain it! Mysteriously, the Reynolds Center has been the American's premier home court in 2024.