AAC Week 3 Performance Tiers: A Weekend to Forget
Only three AAC teams recorded FBS victories in week 3.
Tier 1: Elite Wins
Memphis Tigers (beat Florida State 20-12)
Memphis strolled into Tallahassee last Saturday and took down a Florida State team that, despite its record, boasts one of the country’s most talented rosters. The 20-12 final score doesn’t do the fact of the matter justice: the Tigers were simply better than their ACC opponents. Postgame win expectancy, a metric that helps isolate the effects of luck, gives Memphis an 88% chance to win if the game was played again with both teams attaining the same stats.
Although not everything was sunshine and rainbows — the Tigers’ run game was stagnant for the second time in three weeks and Florida State nearly mounted a late comeback — this is a momentous win. Memphis is clearly the best team in the American and is in the driver’s seat for the G5 playoff spot.
Tier 2: Encouraging Wins
FAU Owls (beat FIU 38-20)
Florida Atlantic suffered a methodical, embarrassing home loss to Army last Saturday and a hideous loss to Michigan State in the season opener. In what could end up being a decisive year for the Tom Herman experiment, the Owls were not only bad but hard to watch through the season’s early weeks: as of Friday, FAU’s offense was ranked the nation’s fourth-worse by SP+.
That’s why the Owls’ dominant victory over an evenly-matched rival was so important. Although quarterback Cam Fancher looked ineffective for the third consecutive week, FAU established an offensive identity for the first time this season, with RB Zuberi Mobley racking up 140 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20 carries. This team is going to live or die by offensive improvement (or lack thereof), and Saturday’s performance can only be seen as a step in the right direction.
Tier 3: Moral Victories
UAB Blazers (lost to Arkansas 37-27)
An inspiring and perhaps season-defining performance. Some might take issue with the term ‘moral victory,’ especially when applied to a game that slipped away from UAB late, but the Blazers’ efforts in Fayetteville must be separated from the final score. Coming off the most embarrassing loss in recent program history, Trent Dilfer’s squad punched Arkansas in the mouth, dominating the first quarter and jumping out to a 17-3 lead. The Blazers’ flaws eventually reared their heads — Arkansas posted a 99th percentile EPA per rush attempt — but UAB stayed in constant striking distance despite penalty struggles and a scary injury to WR Brandon Buckhaulter.
Full recap to come.
Temple Owls (lost to Coastal Carolina 28-20)
Temple was a 17-point home underdog entering the weekend, a spread well-deserved after the Owls were embarrassed by Oklahoma and Navy. Widely regarded as the worst team in the FBS, it was once unclear whether Stan Drayton’s squad is capable of winning a football game; an 0-12 season is still possible, if not downright likely, but Temple showed encouraging signs of life against Coastal Carolina. Quarterback Evan Simon turned in a respectable performance, the Owl defense held Coastal to just one explosive play, and a Chanticleer pick-six was the difference-maker in the semi-competitive game.
The Owls’ efforts inched them ahead of Kent State and Kennesaw State in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, freeing them from the burden of being the lowest-rated team in the FBS. This version of Temple could have a shot against UConn or, optimistically, Utah State.
Tier 4: Business as Usual
South Florida Bulls (beat Southern Miss 49-24)
South Florida, who faced off against Alabama last week and who takes on Miami (FL) next week, survived a letdown spot on the road against a bad Southern Miss team. The Bulls fell behind early before scoring four consecutive touchdowns to stake themselves to a lead they would never relinquish. QB Byrum Brown was erratic but explosive, USF established a hyper-effective run game, and the Bulls defense allowed a few too many chunk plays through the air, none of which are surprising.
We’ll learn much more about this team next Saturday.
Tier 5: Frustrating Losses
Tulane Green Wave (lost to Oklahoma 34-19)
The last two weeks have been incredibly deflating for Tulane, PAC-12 rumors aside. Last Saturday, the Green Wave dropped a grindy game in Norman in which neither offense looked good: Tulane QB Darian Mensah and company scored just two touchdowns the entire game. Jon Sumrall’s group is certainly talented, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and Tulane has come up short against two consecutive CFP contenders. Although their AAC title odds are still strong, the Green Wave’s playoff chances have all but evaporated.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (lost to Oklahoma State 45-10)
The last two weeks have also been incredibly deflating for Tulsa. QB Kirk Francis and the Golden Hurricane offense dropped 62 points on Northwestern State to open the season, proceeded to lose a heartbreaker on the road at Arkansas State, and then got demolished on Saturday in front of a sold-out home crowd. It wasn’t pretty on either side of the ball: Tulsa posted an offensive success rate of 36% and couldn’t get a stop to save their lives. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman carved up the Golden Hurricane secondary to the tune of 396 passing yards and 5 touchdowns.
East Carolina Pirates (lost to Appalachian State 21-19)
East Carolina had no business losing this game. The Pirates jumped out to a 16-0 lead behind their electric defense and their rowdy home crowd; ECU entered the second quarter in complete control after star cornerback Shavon Revel returned an errant Appalachian State pass 50 yards for a touchdown.
The fact that the Mountaineers clawed back is an indictment on the East Carolina offense, which has proven to be a liability, as I wrote last week.
Tier 6: Jarringly Bad
Rice Owls (lost to Houston 33-7)
Don’t let Houston’s Big 12 status fool you. Arguably the nation’s worst Power 4 team, the Cougars were favored by just 3.5 points entering the night. Rice still managed to turn in one of the worst offensive performances in program history: quarterback EJ Warner finished the night having completed 12 passes for 50 yards.
The Owls’ dreams of a breakthrough season are all but dead. They’ve looked abysmal in both of their FBS games.
UTSA Roadrunners (lost to Texas 56-7)
The implications of a post-Frank Harris universe have set in swiftly and violently. Losing to Texas isn’t embarrassing on its face, but the aura of invulnerability that permeated this program for so long has dissipated. UTSA has been absolutely walloped in two consecutive weeks, a reality that should feel unfathomable to recent observers of G5 football.
The Roadrunners are nowhere near the Memphis/Tulane/USF tier, and they’re probably worse than East Carolina and Army.
North Texas Mean Green (lost to Texas Tech 66-21)
Texas Tech scored 49 points in the first half, put up a grand total of 586 yards, and averaged an otherworldly 8.86 yards per play. North Texas’ offense had no response; QB Chandler Morris, swarmed from the opening snap, completed 15 passes for just 127 yards.
The Mean Green shouldn’t be completely discounted because of one bad performance — they still boast an impressive road win over a good South Alabama — but there are major concerns here. North Texas struggled to score against a TTU defense that gave up 51 points to Abilene Christian, and per SP+, UNT’s defense is the worst unit in the country for the second consecutive season.
Charlotte 49ers (beat FCS Gardner-Webb 27-26)
Biff Poggi criticized fans for leaving at halftime when Charlotte was down 17-3 to an FCS team. Charlotte is now 8-25 since announcing its move to the AAC. The 49ers are 125th in SP+ and still must face a brutal conference schedule. This situation is very bad.