AAC Week 1 Performance Tiers: North Texas Impresses, Rice Disappoints
The AAC finished the season's first week with a combined 10-4 record.
FBS Victories
North Texas 52, South Alabama 38: No team in the conference is feeling better about itself this morning than North Texas, who strolled into Ladd-Peebles Stadium and took down a very solid South Alabama team in convincing fashion. The Mean Green offense picked up right where it left off: new quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 415 yards and 3 touchdowns while recording a brilliant 0.73 EPA per dropback. Damon Ward Jr. seems on track to be the next breakout UNT receiver, reeling in 12 passes for 230 yards in the win.
The Mean Green defense is clearly still a work-in-progress — USA posted very efficient offensive numbers, finding plenty of success both through the air and on the ground — but any worries about Morris’ fit in the system have been dispelled.
UTSA 28, Kennesaw State 16: It was a tale of two halves for quarterback Owen McCown and the new-look UTSA roster; the Roadrunners took a 15-point lead in the second quarter but quickly fell prey to penalties and poor execution. Jeff Traylor’s group was never truly in danger of losing — the Roadrunners’ win probability bottomed out at 80% — but UTSA’s overall performance felt lackluster, especially considering it was their opponent’s first-ever FBS game. As expected, there will be growing pains.
FCS Blowouts
Army 42, Lehigh 7: Army’s wishbone offense absolutely crushed Lehigh to the tune of 375 rushing yards. If there’s any nitpicking to be done, it’s the fact that the Mountain Hawks averaged a very healthy 0.16 EPA per rush.
Tulsa 62, Northwestern State 28: Tulsa quarterback Kirk Francis averaged 10 yards per completion, the Golden Hurricane rushed for 323 yards, and TU turned in one of the best offensive performances in recent program history. The defense and special teams got the job done, but gave up several massive plays, including a 75-yard touchdown run and a 74-yard kick six. Northwestern State finished the game with an extremely high explosiveness rate of 12%.
Tulane 52, SELA 0: Domination. Tulane’s offense was hyper-efficient and posted nearly 9 yards per play. QB Darian Mensah went 10/12 for 205 yards and two touchdowns. CB Rayshawn Pleasant took a pick-six 100 yards.
UAB 41, Alcorn State 3: Thoughts at length here. Not a fantastic performance; not a terrible one.
Memphis 40, North Alabama 0: The Memphis defense absolutely smothered UNA, holding the Lions to 2.71 yards per play, and QB Seth Henigan looked very sharp. A nitpick: after RB Sutton Smith suffered an early-game injury, the Tiger running game went stagnant. Memphis was stuffed at the line of scrimmage on over a third of their rush attempts.
East Carolina 42, Norfolk State 3: If you thought UAB was sloppy, East Carolina turned the ball over a whopping six times, but QB Jake Garcia was efficient, three interceptions aside. As we established last month, ECU’s defense is one of the best and most exciting in the conference, and it showed. The Pirates racked up 17 (!) tackles for loss and posted a stuff rate of 51%, one of the highest numbers I’ve ever seen.
Navy 49, Bucknell 21: Powered by a perfect red-zone conversion rate and several massive chunk plays, Navy’s offense hummed along, but Bucknell put together multiple healthy drives.
USF 48, Bethune-Cookman 3: USF’s defense performed very well, holding B-C to 1.2 yards per carry and recording 14 TFLs. The Bulls’ offense got the job done, but it wasn’t very explosive. QB Byrum Brown looked just OK on limited passing attempts, and Alex Golesh chose to run the ball over 60% of the time.
??????
Michigan State 16, FAU 10: In most cases, a one-score road loss to a Big 10 team would be cause for celebration, but I have no idea what to make of Florida Atlantic’s hideous game against Michigan State.
The Spartans, for one thing, are bad — preseason SP+ rankings peg MSU as one of the nation’s worst Power 4 teams. FAU also did not play particularly well; their offense performed abysmally, posting a success rate of 28%, giving up 7 sacks on 32 dropbacks, and failing to convert important red zone opportunities. The Owls’ defense put up respectable numbers, but this was a game FAU couldn’t win despite their opponent shooting itself in the foot over and over again (Michigan State committed 12 penalties for 140 yards). The final score reflects more on MSU’s ineptitude than it does on FAU.
Yikes.
Oklahoma 51, Temple 3: As I wrote last month, things are grim in Philadelphia. Losing at Oklahoma isn’t humiliating on its face — it’s unlikely any AAC team could pull out a win in Norman — but Temple was simply obliterated. JUCO transfer Forrest Brock posted a QBR of 7 and the Owl offensive line gave up 6 sacks on 31 dropbacks.
Things will not get better from here. Several of the Owls’ best players are already sidelined with injuries or suspensions, including OT Luke Wilson, DE Diwun Black, and WR Zae Baines, and Temple will be an underdog against all of their remaining opponents. This team could be the nation’s worst.
Sam Houston State 34, Rice 14: An inexplicable result. Rice entered the season with palpable buzz around the program for the first time in recent memory; after a 6-6 campaign in 2023, the Owls added Temple transfer QB EJ Warner en route to picking up the conference’s fifth-highest preseason SP+ rating.
And they were crushed by Sam Houston, a team that joined the FBS in 2023 and went 3-9 last year. Warner was inefficient and the Owl run game was non-existent. The defense was OK — Mike Bloomgren’s group racked up 7 sacks — but the Owls have some soul-searching to do.
James Madison 30, Charlotte 7: SHSU-Rice elicited a shocked yikes; Oklahoma-Temple elicited a gruesome yikes. This yikes is simply resigned. James Madison, a team replacing 95% of its production and 100% of its coaching staff, controlled this game from the start. Somehow, Charlotte is already down nearly half of its starters. The 49ers are 7-24 since announcing their move to the AAC. Biff Poggi is still giving all of his press conferences in cutoffs. What are we doing here?