AAC Football Preview Series: North Texas Mean Green
Following a significant talent exodus, second-year head coach Eric Morris is tasked with onboarding roughly 50 new scholarship players.
One doesn’t have to squint very hard to see the foundations of a sleeping giant in Denton, TX.
Situated on the north end of the sprawling Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the University of North Texas is the largest school in a region that has long been considered one of the country’s most fertile football recruiting grounds. UNT enrolls nearly 50,000 students a year, a higher number than either Cincinnati or Houston, two similarly urban public schools that have exploded onto the national stage in recent years. The university’s alumni base is mammoth, numbering over 476,000 as of early 2024.
Despite its latent potential, North Texas has never been able to find success and hold onto it: the program hasn’t strung together more than three consecutive winning seasons since 1978. However, it briefly seemed as though the Mean Green had begun to push towards their ceiling in the wake of a massive 2010s facility improvement campaign that culminated in the construction of a new football stadium.
“Three weekends ago, I was sitting in the sparkling new press box of Apogee Stadium, home of the North Texas Mean Green, with my mouth agape,” wrote ESPN’s Ryan McGee in 2012. “Why? Because I hadn't been on the Denton, Texas, campus in more than a decade, and I couldn't believe where I was sitting and what I was seeing. It was as nice a press box as I've seen in college football, the product of a nearly $80 million stadium construction project and a larger Mean Green athletic village that will soon be home to 13 of the school's 16 sports teams.”
“Located where it is and with the commitment they're making to facilities, this place is a sleeping giant," said Gus Malzahn, Arkansas State’s head coach at the time.
That sentiment would be repeated by several parties throughout the decade, but the new stadium brought with it mixed on-field results. Head coach Dan McCarney lead the Mean Green to a 9-4 record in 2013 but was fired in ignominy in 2015 after his team was demolished 66-7 by FCS Portland State.
It was former UNC offensive coordinator Seth Littrell who provided the program’s most recent proof of concept. Hired as UNT’s head coach before the 2016 season, he struck gold on local recruits and quickly turned North Texas into a Conference USA powerhouse. Mason Fine of Locust Grove, Oklahoma became the greatest quarterback in school history. Jeff Wilson of Elkhart, Texas became an all-conference running back. Rico Bussey of Lawton, Oklahoma became one of the nation’s most productive receivers.
But as has been the case for every coach to roam the North Texas sidelines since the 1980s, Littrell couldn’t sustain success for long. After a brilliant first two seasons, the quality of his teams suffered a slow decline that culminated in his unceremonious firing after a 2022 conference championship game loss to UTSA. Littrell significantly raised UNT’s floor during his tenure, but by the admission of university president Neil Smatresk, North Texas wanted to shoot for the stars as they moved into the American.
In Littrell’s place, the Mean Green hired former Washington State OC Eric Morris, a Texas native who spent 2018-2021 as the head coach at FCS Incarnate Word in San Antonio. Despite posting a 5-7 record last season, UNT showed promise in Morris’ first year on the sidelines, turning in competitive efforts against AAC heavyweights UTSA, Tulane, and Memphis and losing a one-score game against Navy. A horrific defense prevented the Mean Green from being truly formidable (à la UAB), but the offense put up an impressive 34.5 points per game behind quarterback Chandler Rogers and running back Ayo Adeyi.
However, North Texas suffered massive roster turnover on both sides of the ball, a frustrating roadblock in the team’s quest to reach the heights of former peers like UTSA and SMU. Morris and company are tasked with onboarding roughly 50 new scholarship players as they attempt to keep UNT relevant in the Texas landscape and deliver the program’s long-awaited breakthrough.
Offense
North Texas was unequivocally one of the best offensive teams in the conference last season, trailing only Memphis and SMU in SP+ rating. The Mean Green specialized in ripping off massive rushing gains, fielding the nation’s most explosive ground game on the backs of RBs Adeyi and Oscar Adaway III, who combined to run for over 1,750 yards. The passing attack was efficient and deadly: QB Rogers thrived in Eric Morris’ ‘Coug Raid’ system, WR Ja’Mori Maclin averaged nearly 18 yards per reception, and OG Febechi Nwaiwu was an all-conference honoree.
As is the life of a G5 team, all of the aforementioned players are gone.
The 2024 UNT offense will almost certainly be quarterbacked by TCU transfer Chandler Morris (no relation to Eric), a former four-star prospect who began his career at Oklahoma. Morris was reasonably effective over three seasons with the Horned Frogs; he may not provide the same duel-threat upside that Rogers did, but he’s an experienced Air Raid QB that’s played under such advocates of the system as Lincoln Riley, Garrett Riley, and Sonny Dykes. If Morris stays healthy, the Mean Green have plenty of reason for optimism at the position.
The keyword is if. Morris has suffered through three consecutive injury-marred campaigns and has appeared in just 21 total games over his four years in college. North Texas doesn’t have a particularly inspiring contingency plan in the event that Morris misses time: their backups are JUCO transfer Carson Woods, true freshman Cash McCollum, and journeyman Grant Tisdale, who also transferred in from TCU.
The Mean Green lose their top five rushers, but return RB Ikaika Ragsdale, who recorded nearly 900 scrimmage yards in 2022 before missing nearly all of last season with an injury. North Texas also imported Power 5 transfers Juwaun Price (Syracuse), a veteran pass-catching back that will fit nicely into Eric Morris’ system, and Zach Evans (Minnesota), who recorded 230 rushing yards for the Golden Gophers in 2023.
North Texas also brings back several capable WRs, including program staple Damon Ward and productive slot receivers Landon Sides and Blair Conwright, but they’re faced with the departure of the excellent Maclin, who was the 2023 team’s leading receiver by over 500 yards. The prime candidate to replace him is West Virginia transfer Jeremiah Aaron, who came into Morgantown as a highly-touted JUCO prospect but was hindered by injuries over his two years at WVU.
Although replacing the production of Adeyi and Adaway III will be no easy feat, UNT’s running back room is deep and experienced, and North Texas’ offensive system lends its WRs to breakout seasons: Maclin gained 624 more receiving yards in 2023 than he did in 2022. The Mean Green shouldn’t suffer a significant falloff at the skill positions.
However, they have questions to answer up front after losing multiple starters on the line. The interior OL imports Landon Peterson from Texas Tech and brings back all-conference guard Gabe Blair and versatile veteran Jett Duncan, giving the Mean Green a workable core, but the tackles are the least experienced position group on the UNT offense. Recent reports from North Texas camp suggest Peterson could move to the outside.
Despite the uncertainty in the trenches, the Mean Green are likely to boast one of the conference’s better offenses if Chandler Morris can stay on the field; just how close they can get to the 2023 unit remains to be seen.
Defense
North Texas was shackled with the worst in a decade-long line of porous Mean Green defenses last season; in fact, the unit was ranked the least effective in the country by both EPA and SP+, and it wasn’t even close. North Texas let up an average of more than 37 points per game and held only three opponents below the 30-point mark.
The main problem was the ground game: UNT opponents racked up a combined total of 3,062 rushing yards by the end of the season. Their shortcomings were counterintuitive, as the team possessed real talent in the front seven — excellent linebacker Jordan Brown and brawny tackle Roderick Brown each performed at an all-conference level — but North Texas DC Matt Caponi attributed many of the defense’s struggles to the switch to a 3-3-5 defensive scheme, which was installed during the 2022 offseason.
The Mean Green will again have some onboarding to do in the fall. Both Browns return in 2023, but Roderick will likely be surrounded by Power 5 transfers Jake Shipley (Oregon) and Terrell Dawkins (South Carolina), while Jordan will be flanked by Iowa State transfer JJ Jean-Louis. Returning starter LB Ethan Wesloski is the only other measure of continuity in the front seven. Whether the newcomers click or not, North Texas has at least added some size, which was a glaring issue last season.
The secondary is in a similar situation: talented veteran Ridge Texada will anchor the unit at cornerback, but Eric Morris and company imported a boatload of Power 5 transfers that will fill out the remainder of the backfield. Safety is the most complicated position in the Mean Green’s system, and former DII player Jayden Hill is a name to watch after an impressive offseason.
North Texas’ defense returns some productive pieces, but its success lies in the hands of 6+ new starters. Caponi has expressed optimism about the fit of the incoming transfers and the freshman class, and the unit has nowhere to go but up; conservative projections still peg the Mean Green as the weakest defensive team in the conference, and they should be thought of as such until they demonstrate marked progress, but a little improvement could go a long way.
Three Best Players:
LB Jordan Brown
WR Landon Sides
DT Roderick Brown
Three Burning Questions:
How seamless will QB Chandler Morris’ transition to UNT’s system be? Can he stay healthy?
Will a Maclin or Adeyi-type star emerge at the skill positions?
Can 6+ new defensive starters lift the unit out of the nation’s cellar?
Outlook and Prediction:
With the Texas G5 arms race in full swing, this is a crucial prove-it season for Eric Morris and the Mean Green. There are two outlooks on North Texas:
Optimistically, Chandler Morris is an excellent on-paper replacement for Chandler Rogers. Despite losing several important skill position players, UNT still has talent at both RB and WR, and their offense will again be one of the highest-octane in the conference. The defense is entering year two of the 3-3-5 with far more size and depth than it had last season. The roster is better outfitted to match the scheme, and returners Jordan Brown, Rod Brown, and Ridge Texada are all-conference level players.
Pessimistically, although the offense will still be good, it will almost definitely be less productive than last year’s stellar unit — the contributions of Rogers, Adeyi, Adaway III, and Maclin will be hard to replicate, and the question marks at tackle are concerning. The defense turns over half of its starters while coming off one of the worst seasons in school history. Has the roster’s overall quality really been upgraded? SP+ doesn’t think so, projecting the Mean Green to fall from the nation’s 86th-best team to its 109th-best.
UNT’s schedule does them no favors, as North Texas opens the season with a tough road game against South Alabama in which they’ll be roughly 7-point underdogs. The Mean Green also have to face Texas Tech on the road and Wyoming at home, the latter of which is a toss-up. A matchup against FCS Stephen F. Austin is UNT’s only respite.
Their conference slate is bookended by relatively easy games against Tulsa and Temple, but the middle six weeks are brutal: at FAU, at Memphis, vs. Tulane, vs. Army, at UTSA, vs. ECU.
North Texas’ range of outcomes is wide — there are probably five games on their schedule that could go either way. Eric Morris and company are certainly capable of exceeding expectations, and a bowl bid is well within reach, but with such roster turnover it’s hard to confidently predict significant improvement for the Mean Green.